Drug War Statistics, Part 1

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics..." Mark Twain

Honestly, it isn't quite that bad. It isn't the numbers that lie; it's what happens when they're massaged, folded, spindled, mutilated, extracted, isolated, or otherwise manipulated in the service of an agenda other than the quest for an accurate glimpse of reality.

The statistics compiled in the course of engaging in the War on Drugs provide an abundance of lessons in that regard. This statistical interlude is intended as the first of a series. One of my goals is to use as many different statistical studies as I can find, on as many different topics as I consider worthwhile. These include such studies as drug crop statistics; estimates of wholesale market value; estimates of retail price; demographic surveys purporting to provide accurate estimates of use; police and medical statistics; drug law penalties, and as many other topics as appear relevant.

One of the things that will become appraent over time is the imprecision of some of the surveys, and the wide variation of estimates present in a range of plural studies- estimates of drug crop acreage and harvests and self-report surveys of illegal drug use are two examples where the numbers are elastic, often varying from study to study, even when attempting to measure the same nations and populations. Other statistics, such as drug seizures, and drug-related hospital admissions, arrests, and incarcerations are more reliable and precise. A maximum of detail is often needed to generate accurate insights from those numbers, though, even considering their overall reliability.

With those preliminary caveats in place, let's do the numbers.

These stats roughly coincide with the era of which I'm presently writing, the 1960s-1970s:

Cocaine Seizures by the U.S. Bureau of Customs, 1960-72

1960 11 pounds

1961 8 pounds

1962 19 pounds

1963 10 pounds

1964 28 pounds

1965 37 pounds

1966 45 pounds

1967 40 pounds

1968 98 pounds

1969 199 pounds

1970 227 pounds

1971 408 pounds

1972 619 pounds

(from Cocaine, by Richard Ashley, 1975, Warner Books; p.128- footnote credits gov't. doc.- U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, 92nd Congress)

Marijuana Arrests: State and Federal 1965-1971

State

1965 18,815

1966 31,119

1967 61,843

1968 98,870

1969 118,903

1970 188,682

1971 (missing)

Federal

1965 523

1966 746

1967 941

1968 1,433

1969 2,189

1970 2,082

1971 3,323

[ In 1971, at the Federal level, 60% of arrests led to convictions, 28.5% received prison sentences, and the average sentence was 39.9 months. Source: Drinks, Drugs, and Do-Gooders, by Prof. Charles E. Goshen, 1973: Free Press/MacMillan, p.215, citing Marihuana: A Signal Of Misunderstanding, First Report of the National commission on Marijuana and Drug Abuse, March, 1972, US GPO doc.)]

Federal drug enforcement budget in 1969: $65,000,000

Federal drug enforcement budget in 1974: $719,000,000

[ From Smoke And Mirrors: The War On Drugs And The Politics Of Failure, by Dan Baum, 1996: Little, Brown, and Company; p.75. Endnote cites Hearings on Federal Drug Enforcement by the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, 1975 and 1976, p.880. ]

Drug Consumption Demographic Survey, New York State, 1971 (estimates)

Tranquilizers 525,000
(Valium, Librium, Miltown)

Barbiturates
(Phenobarbital, Seconal, Tuinal) 377,000

Amphetamines
(Dexedrine, Methedrine, Benzedrine) 225,000

Marijuana 485,000
(50% reported using on the job)

Heroin 41,000
(6+ times per month)

(from Drinks, Drugs, and Do-Gooders, by Prof. Charles E. Goshen, 1973: Free Press/MacMillan, p.248- citing New York Narcotics Addiction Control Commission survey, 1971)

Number of prescriptions for psychoactive drugs written in 1970: 214,000,000

Amount spent by Americans in 1970 on legal spirits, wine, and beer: $24 billion

Amount spent by Americans in 1970 on illegal drugs (estimated): $2 billion

Number of Americans in 1969 who died from drugs, both legal and illegal: 1,601

Number of Americans in 1970 who died from drugs, both legal and illegal: 1,899

Number of Americans in 1971 who died from drugs, both legal and illegal: 2,313

[ From Smoke And Mirrors: The War On Drugs And The Politics Of Failure, by Dan Baum, 1996: Little, Brown, and Company; p.28, p.47, p.66. Mortality statistics are taken from Vital Statistics of The United States, Volume II: Mortality Part A, published by the US Cabinet agency formerly known as the Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare. ]


Nationwide Survey of Marijuana Use, 1972 (estimates)

At least 1 use- 24,000,000 Americans over age 11

details- "Until recently twice as many males as females had used it...Marijuana use does not appear to vary significantly by race...usage is highest in cities, towns, and suburbs, but not uncommon in rural areas. States in the Northeast and West have significantly higher rates of use than have the North Central...and Southern States. Use is found in all socio-economic groups and occupations...those who have used the drug are heavily concentrated in the 16-25 age bracket."

[From Goshen, p.211, citing the NCMDA Report, 1972 (op.cit.)]

U. Michigan Survey

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1975

Previous 30 days- 27.1%

Daily- 6%

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1978

Previous 30 days- 37.1%

Daily- 10.6%

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Alcohol, 1978

Previous 30 days- 72.1%

5 or more drinks at one sitting in previous 2 weeks- 40.3%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.150-151)

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1980

previous 30 days- 33.7%

daily use- 9.1%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.189)

Marijuana Use by High School Seniors, 1981

previous 30 days- 25.2%

Cocaine Use by High School Seniors, 1981

previous 30 days- 5.8%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.169)

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1988

previous 30 days- 18%

daily use- 2.7%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.189)

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Cocaine, 1985

previous 30 days- 6.7%

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Cocaine, 1988

previous 30 days- 3.4%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.198)

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1992

previous year- 21.9%

previous 30 days- 11.9%

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1993

previous year- 26%

previous 30 days- 15.5%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.213)

Percentage of U.S. High School Seniors Using Marijuana, 1994

daily use- 2.4%

cocaine use, previous 30 days- 1.3%

5 or more alcoholic drinks at one sitting, previous 2 weeks- 27.5%

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.219)

cocaine-related deaths, 1980- 96

cocaine related deaths, 1988- 1,290

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.190)


Estimated number of Intravenous Drug Users, New York City, early 1990s- 200,000 (OASAS estimate)

(From The Fix, by Michael Massing, p.23)

[Further References- Katzenbach Report, 1990; OASAS report; National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, done by the US Substance Abuse and Mental health Services Administration; U. Michigan's "Monitoring The Future" study of 8th/10th/12th grade HS students; National Narcotics Intelligence Consumers Committee annual report; National Drug Control Policy annual study, by US Office of Nnational Drug Control Policy.]


Wholesale price of a kilogram of cocaine, 1981- $60,000 Time magazine, July 6, 1981: p.59